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Crypto and DeFi · Altcoins and Narratives

Alt season: what it is and isn't

Define alt season honestly, including how it's recognized, how it ends, and what it isn't.

3 min read+25 XPLesson 27 of 79
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Crypto and DeFi

Altcoins and Narratives

Lesson 27 of 7934%
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Lesson 27 of 79Crypto and DeFiAltcoins and Narratives

Today's tiny win: make one idea click.

Define alt season honestly, including how it's recognized, how it ends, and what it isn't.

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The myth, the mechanics, and the timer

Alt season has near-mythical status in crypto. The story goes — BTC runs, then ETH catches up, then mid-cap alts spike, then small caps and memecoins go vertical. Lambos appear in driveways. Group chats won't shut up. The cycle peaks. Then the floor falls out. There is real history behind this pattern — it has happened with variations in 2017, late 2020 into 2021, and across several smaller cycles. But the pattern is not a guarantee, and the reality is much messier than the meme makes it sound.

Wick points at a chalkboard defining alt season as most large alts beating BTC at the same time over about 90 days, showing why it is a high and rare bar.Alt season, definedMost large alts beat BTCAt the same timeOver about 90 days
Wick saysAlt season means most large alts beat Bitcoin at once, not just one or two pumping.

The cleanest definition you can use as a trader: alt season is when most large-cap altcoins outperform Bitcoin at the same time, usually measured on a 90-day basis. Not when one or two alts pump. Not when a single narrative is hot. Most of them, simultaneously. That is a high bar. It rarely happens, and when it does, it does not last long. Eight to twelve weeks is a typical window. Anyone telling you alt season is just starting after most majors are already up 4x is selling you the top, not the bottom.

Wick thinks that for every 20x winner, dozens of coins went to zero, showing survivorship bias makes alt season look easier than it really is.For every 20xwinner, dozens ofcoins went to zero.?
Wick saysWinners brag loudly, but losers do not post charts, so the stories you hear are skewed.

How does it usually end? Three triggers show up over and over. First, BTC reasserts itself. A new BTC catalyst or a strong move higher pulls capital back into Bitcoin and BTC.D climbs again. Second, a macro shock — an unexpected rate decision, a regulatory action, a major exchange failure — liquidates leveraged positions and washes the market out. Third, the leading narrative simply exhausts. The story stops working and the chart rolls over without a single dramatic moment. By the time the magazine covers and the breathless headlines arrive, the experienced participants are already trimming.

Wick compares three cards: money flows back to Bitcoin, a macro shock wipes out leverage, or the story fades, showing the common ways an alt season ends.BTC winsMoneyflows backto BitcoinShockSurprisenews wipesleverageFadesThe storyjust runsout
Wick saysAlt seasons often end when Bitcoin takes over, a shock hits, or the story runs out.

The honest take. Alt season is real, but rare, short, and partial. Most months are not alt season. Most rallies in alts are BTC-led, with alts dragging behind. If you want to participate when an actual alt season shows up, the move is to know how to recognize it from BTC.D and total market cap behavior, not from your group chat. And the move to stay alive is to take profit on the way up, not at the top.

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1. What is the cleanest definition of alt season?

2. Which of these is NOT typically a trigger that ends alt season?

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