HG (copper) as macro indicator

Dr. Copper: the chart with a PhD

Copper trades on COMEX under the ticker HG. One contract represents 25,000 pounds of copper. The price is quoted in dollars per pound — say 4.40 — so a single contract controls $110,000 of metal. Tick size is 0.0005 (half of one tenth of a cent), and each tick is worth $12.50. There's a micro version called MHG that's one-tenth the size at $1.25 per tick.

What makes copper special is the nickname Dr. Copper. The joke is that copper has a PhD in economics — meaning its price tends to forecast global growth before economists' reports confirm it. Why? Copper is the most industrial metal you can trade. Houses use it for wiring and plumbing. Cars use it in motors and batteries. Factories use it in machinery. Renewable energy infrastructure — solar, wind, grid upgrades — uses staggering amounts. When economic activity accelerates, copper demand rises before earnings reports catch up.

Two ways copper informs your trading even if you never trade it directly. One: copper is a check on equity market direction. If stocks are rallying but copper is rolling over, the rally has a soft foundation. If both are rising together, growth is real. Two: copper's behavior versus gold tells you about the regime. Copper outperforming gold = growth-on, risk-on. Gold outperforming copper = growth-off, defensive. The copper-to-gold ratio is a chart worth keeping in your stack even if you mostly trade other markets.

Recap: HG is copper, 25,000 lb contract, $12.50/tick. Dr. Copper signals global growth — China is ~half of demand. Watch HG to confirm equity moves and to read the growth regime.