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Crypto and DeFi · Bitcoin and the Macro Context

Past halvings: 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024

Walk through the four halvings on record and what each preceded in the cycle.

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Crypto and DeFi

Bitcoin and the Macro Context

Lesson 13 of 7916%
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Lesson 13 of 79Crypto and DeFiBitcoin and the Macro Context

Today's tiny win: make one idea click.

Walk through the four halvings on record and what each preceded in the cycle.

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Four halvings on the record

Bitcoin has had four halvings so far. The first, in November 2012, dropped the block reward from 50 BTC to 25. The second, in July 2016, from 25 to 12.5. The third, in May 2020, from 12.5 to 6.25. The fourth, in April 2024, from 6.25 to 3.125. Each of these dates is fixed in the historical record and can be verified against the blockchain itself. What is not fixed is what came after each one — though if you look honestly, a pattern does show up consistently enough to be worth understanding.

After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin rallied from low double-digit dollar prices into a peak above $1,000 by late 2013. After the 2016 halving, the cycle peaked near $20,000 in December 2017. After the 2020 halving, the run topped out near $69,000 in November 2021. The 2024 halving cycle is still unfolding as of this writing, and the early phase has been shaped heavily by spot ETF demand, which we cover in upcoming lessons.

Wick points at a chalkboard listing past cycle peaks above $1,000 in 2013, near $20,000 in 2017 and near $69,000 in 2021, showing the pattern traders watch and its small sample.Peaks after halvings2013: above $1,0002017: near $20,0002021: near $69,000
Wick saysPast peaks came 12 to 18 months after a halving, but three cycles is a small sample.

Here's where humility matters. Three cycles is not enough data to prove the halving causes the rally. It might. Or rallies might happen because supply shocks coincide with periods of expanding global liquidity, the rise of new buyer pools, or sheer narrative momentum. The honest read is: the pattern shows up, the mechanism is plausible, and any trader who treats it as a guarantee is taking on more risk than they realize.

Wick looks worried at the bottom of a pit after a 60% or more drop, with a ladder marked +150% to recover, showing why sizing must respect Bitcoin's long drawdowns.-60%++150% to recover
Wick saysBitcoin drops after past peaks were 60% or more, and that takes +150% to climb back.

What the four-halving record does suggest, fairly clearly, is that Bitcoin moves in long cycles rather than a smooth uptrend. The pattern looks like roughly 12-to-18-month expansion phases after each halving, followed by long drawdowns of 60% or more before the next cycle begins. Sizing positions and managing risk has to account for that volatility, not pretend it isn't there. The traders who blow up in Bitcoin almost always do it by treating a bull-cycle uptrend as the natural state of the asset and ignoring how brutal the drawdowns that follow can be.

Wick compares a green Fact card saying treat the halving pattern as a clue with a coral Myth card saying treat it as a promise, showing the honest way to read cycles.FactTreat the halvingpattern as a clueMythTreat it as apromise
Wick saysThe halving pattern is worth watching, but treating it as a promise adds hidden risk.

Recap: four halvings on the record — 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024. Each preceded a major bull cycle. Three is not a large sample, but the pattern is on the table.

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1. Which year did the most recent Bitcoin halving occur?

2. How should a trader honestly interpret the halving-to-bull-cycle pattern?

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