Jobless Claims

Jobless claims (officially "initial claims for unemployment insurance") measures the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given week. It's released every Thursday at 8:30am ET, making it the most frequent labor market indicator in the US. Low and stable claims (around 200,000-220,000 per week historically) indicate a healthy labor market. Rising claims signal labor market weakening — usually a precursor to higher unemployment in subsequent NFP reports. A claims number jumping above 250,000-275,000 is a red flag that the labor market is cracking. Claims are noisy week to week, so pros watch the 4-week moving average to filter out the volatility. The trend in the moving average is more important than any single week's number.